溫宏駿
Jeff Wen

The biggest shock in digital finance: Amsterdam-based Qivalis expanded from 12 founding members to 37 mainstream financial institutions from 15 countries (BNP Paribas, ING, UniCredit, Nordea and more). Armed with the EU's MiCA framework, they plan to jointly issue a 1:1 euro-backed compliant stablecoin in H2 2026. Qivalis CEO stated plainly: "The euro is Europe's currency. The on-chain financial infrastructure should carry it — built by European institutions, under European rules." ✅ Two Historical Mirrors: Libra's Death vs. America's Encirclement In 2019, the Libra alliance was crushed by regulators as a challenge to national monetary sovereignty. But the US rewrote the playbook — using the GENIUS Act to bind Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), which together control 90%+ of the $260B+ stablecoin market, to the dollar/Treasury war machine. This is the era of maximum dollar penetration since Bretton Woods. ✅ Asia's Strategic Response Asia faces a tougher challenge than Europe — most Asian currencies are non-internationalized. Jeff's bold proposal: Asia should form a "Stablecoin Computing Power Settlement Alliance" modeled on OPEC, using regional local-currency stablecoins to collectively defend against dollar interest-rate extraction. In an era where computing power equals oil, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, and Southeast Asia's AI supply chains are the strongest bargaining chips. America is encroaching, Europe is rallying. Are Asia's financial institutions ready for the on-chain tokenized infrastructure era?

The a16z report isn't a crypto marketing piece — it's a dissection of the financial system. The underlying pipes of finance are being relaid — not patched, but fully replaced. ✅ What Does This New Stack Look Like? 1. Base Layer — not one chain, but three: general-purpose chains for capital markets; payment-specific chains for financial services (Stripe built one, Circle built one); institutional chains for regulated private settlement (Canton Network). Stablecoin issuers are now racing for OCC national trust licenses — whoever wins can plug directly into the Fed's rails. In 2025 alone, over 20 stablecoin issuers applied for new bank charters. 2. Bank Connection Layer — lets traditional banks plug stablecoin functionality into existing core systems without replacement. Deposit tokens and stablecoins will coexist, not compete. 3. Application Layer — crypto exchanges mutating into neobanks, neobanks integrating crypto assets, US stock exchanges integrating prediction markets. One interface to serve crypto natives, ordinary users, and millions of future AI Agents 🤖. ✅ a16z's Core Message: Payments are just Act One. The real show is on-chain credit. As global stablecoins reach trillions, those dollars sitting in wallets need to work — businesses need loans, protocols need liquidity, users want deposits and lending. This is an on-chain credit and capital market forming outside the traditional banking system, with open, programmable, globally interoperable infrastructure 🔥. Every wallet holding a dollar stablecoin is a new node on the dollar financial network. The financial pipes are changing — but who writes the rules is still being contested. Where does Taiwan fit in this new order? Worth serious thought. 🤔

Last night, CRCL's stock price crashed. The trigger: a clause in the Clarity Act banning stablecoins from paying interest. The market panicked, but what I see is yet another "containment" of a new era by the old — and it's increasingly ineffective. ✅ The Interest Ban — A "Stranglehold" or a "Clearing"? History shows that when tech companies face "no entry" restrictions, they are forced to produce even more disruptive innovation. If stablecoins can't pay interest, they'll be driven to achieve ultimate "Velocity" and efficiency — accelerating Circle's pivot to Agentic Payment. ✅ Conclusion: Circle's crash reflects the market's fear of "old logic" disappearing. When everyone fears, identify who truly controls the future AI payment protocol. AI doesn't need interest. AI needs 24/7 real-time settlement. 🔥

✅ Where Was the Surprise in Circle's Earnings? Circle's 30% surge wasn't just about impressive numbers — it reflected a narrative shift in how the market defines stablecoin competition. ✅ The Surprise: Unit Dollar Efficiency, Not Issuance Volume Circle holds less than 28% market share by supply, but commands over 50% of on-chain transaction volume! 🔥 This is the characteristic of financial infrastructure — money that's always being used, not just stored. ✅ AI Agent Economy Changes the Competition Logic When AI Agents automatically buy APIs, execute arbitrage, and run cross-chain strategies, monetary demand logic changes fundamentally. The question becomes: which stablecoin is best suited for the "machine economy"? Machine economies need: trust & compliance, auditability & programmability, low credit risk, and connectivity to traditional finance — conditions that seem to favor Circle.

✅ The Catfish Has Arrived! 🔥 SoFi Bank launched SoFiUSD on Ethereum, backed 1:1 by cash held directly at the Federal Reserve Master Account — making it America's first national bank to issue a stablecoin on a public chain. This isn't a product launch. It's the banking system formally acknowledging that "stablecoin = next-generation payment and settlement layer." ✅ SoFi's positioning: not just issuing a coin, but claiming "bank-grade stablecoin infrastructure." ✅ Taiwan's Lesson: "Banks/enterprises not issuing stablecoins = national financial infrastructure absent from open architecture." Without a TWD sovereign settlement layer → Taiwan's AI semiconductor RWA will continue dollarizing, risking being absorbed by other nations.

✅ Bottom Line First: Neither USDC nor JPMD will be eliminated. What will disappear: ❌ Banks without public chain capabilities (forced to join) ❌ Non-transparent, non-compliant stablecoins (lost in compliance wars) ✅ JPMD vs USDC: Competition or Collaboration? They're both: JPMD = Bank's on-chain SWIFT USDC = Internet Dollar for open networks Competition: Institutional B2B → JPMD wins; Web3/Global Consumers/DeFi → USDC remains unmatched. The real battle is for clearing dominance, not mutual elimination.

Many still think of stablecoins as "safe-haven assets" or "digital dollars" — that's the 1.0 era. With AI computing races and RWA rising, we're entering the 2.0 era of "value programming." 💡 From Passive Storage to Active Execution Through smart custody protocols like ERC-8004, funds don't just sit in wallets — they auto-unlock based on conditions. Example: AI Agent detects computing center delivery, payment settles in seconds. No human review needed. 🔋 The Energy-Computing "Financial Closed Loop" When computing power becomes the new oil of the 21st century, stablecoins become its blood. 2026 capex for computing will exceed $600 billion. Through RWA tokenization, we can programmify electricity costs, carbon credits, and hardware depreciation. The future stablecoin isn't just about stable value. It's about programming the future.

Taiwan's Functional Stablecoin × Semiconductor Supply Chain Traditional Finance Problems: Cross-border settlement T+2/T+3, high costs; supplier funding costs often 10-12%; massive idle cash reserves sitting inefficiently. Functional Stablecoin Solutions: 1. Reduce idle capital: Companies receive funds instantly, no need to hoard cash. 2. Real-time liquidity: Capital auto-dispatches on demand, creating a global "24/7 capital pool." 3. Programmable automation: Smart contracts auto-execute PO → GR → AP → Payment flows. A "Semiconductor Industry-Specific Stablecoin" from Taiwan could directly become Asia's most functional clearing layer and financing platform — a unique chance to leap onto the international stage!

📣 Korea's four major banks are actively partnering with Circle and Tether. Taiwan remains "calm" for now. ✅ Who is Fighting Whom in the Stablecoin Wars? 1. Bank-led vs. Tech distribution: Korea demonstrates "Bank × Super App" fierce competition; Japan takes "strict regulation × compliance"; Taiwan is still in "slow heart mode." 2. USD stablecoin penetration vs. local currency sovereignty: Short-term, everyone needs USDC/USDT for cross-border liquidity; long-term, JPY/KRW/TWD are key for sovereignty and fee control. 3. This is what I keep emphasizing: stablecoins are a war of "national monetary sovereignty"! 🔥 ✅ Cooperation Opportunity: Japan-Korea-Taiwan "Trilateral Corridor" 1. Tourism and e-commerce refund corridor (JPY↔KRW↔TWD): T+0 settlement, refunds in seconds, fees at bps level. 2. Supply chain cross-border payments: Starting with semiconductors and electronics, settling in USD stablecoin. 3. Revenue-sharing alliance: Carve out reserve yields as a "cross-border fee subsidy pool" shared across all three markets. If Taiwan acts alone, it will lose on coordination and speed!

✅ Distribution and User Control (Stripe Wins) • Stripe: Directly controls a massive high-frequency merchant network, solving public chains' hardest "cold start" problem from day one. This is a natural distribution moat. • Circle: USDC has high market share, but distribution is in Coinbase's, exchanges', and wallets' hands. Arc must attract migration through performance, privacy, and FX engine features. • Tether: Though without direct retail users, its close CEX cooperation and cross-border settlement penetration gives strong influence over transaction flows. ✅ Competitive Landscape Prediction (Stripe Wins — Closest to User Needs) • Stripe vs Circle: Short-term Stripe chain launches faster; but for financial institution adoption, Circle's compliance advantage is preferred. • Circle vs Tether: Arc is Circle's counter-offensive against Tether's long-term market share dominance. • Stripe vs Tether: Stripe leads in merchant/Web2/AI; Tether stronger in emerging market cross-border. 📌 Key Principles: 1. Stablecoins are the Eurodollar (offshore USD) war 2. Stablecoins are on-chain M1 competing to replace off-chain M1/M2 3. Compliance, and WHERE you're compliant, matters enormously

Who would have thought: just one week after the stablecoin bill passed, the king of crypto (Coinbase, $100B) and the king of traditional finance (JPMorgan, $800B) chose cooperation over battle! ✅ The Collaboration Reveals Two Future Directions: 1. The "front gate" for fiat entering the chain has been opened by credit cards and reward points. Coinbase is becoming the largest entry port for USD on-chain. 2. The stablecoin war is no longer just between crypto-native issuers — it's "Banks vs. Non-Banks" competing for digital dollar sovereignty. ✅ Competition: - If JPMD expands to individual users, it will directly clash with USDC, especially in USD liquidity control. - JPMD as a "high-trust fiat layer" may be preferred by regulators, potentially marginalizing non-bank issued USDC. ✅ Collaboration: - A dual-track model: "Off-chain capital control + On-chain asset freedom" • JPMD as "clearing layer": on-shore USD • USDC as "application layer": offshore USD (Euro-dollar) Coinbase's strategy resembles AWS — becoming a helper for enterprise acquisition rather than a frontal challenger.

The GENIUS Act passed the House 308-122, establishing the first comprehensive federal regulatory framework for stablecoins. ✅ Key Provisions: 1. Payment stablecoins must hold 1:1 high-liquidity reserves, are prohibited from paying interest, and holders get priority claims in bankruptcy. 2. Tokenized deposits remain under existing banking law, can pay interest — a key competitive advantage. 3. Only "permitted payment stablecoin issuers" can operate in the US: bank subsidiaries, federally qualified non-bank issuers, or state-qualified issuers. ✅ Competitive Analysis: Tokenized Deposits: FDIC insurance, bank credibility, yield-bearing — suits risk-averse institutional clients. Stablecoins: Low cost, instant settlement, cross-chain capability — dominant in DeFi and emerging markets. ✅ The Eurodollar Historical Parallel: Just as the Eurodollar (through the Marshall Plan) expanded USD global influence, stablecoins digitally reinforce USD international adoption — especially in emerging markets. Taiwan's central bank already understands this clearly. The ultimate winner? Consumers!

With the GENIUS Stablecoin Act passed, let's discuss: "Why Tokenized Stocks Become Contested Territory" and "Why ETH is Being Ambushed by Tokenized Finance." ✅ Bottom Line: The Tokenization War ≠ Token Issuance War — It's a "Clearing Sovereignty" War Tokenized US stocks isn't just about "being able to buy TSLA shares." It's about: • Who controls user identity and asset ownership credentials • Whose chain is the clearing chain • Whose compliance model is accepted by global regulators This competition will drive public chain specialization, clearing module standardization, and potentially a layered architecture: "Layer 3 Settlement Network + Layer 2 Asset Layer + Layer 1 Stablecoin Fiat Bridge." ✅ Public Chain Competition Landscape: • Ethereum: Smart contract pioneer, largest developer community, but high gas fees and limited throughput. • Arbitrum: Optimistic Rollup solution, dramatically faster and cheaper, inherits Ethereum security, leading in DeFi. • Base: Launched by Coinbase, biggest advantage is deep integration with Coinbase's massive exchange — compliance bridge, user base, and brand credibility all-in-one. ✅ Base's Competitive Edge: As a regulated centralized exchange, Coinbase provides the compliance framework traditional finance requires for tokenized stocks, while maintaining public chain openness. Remember my slogan: "Stablecoins and RWA are symbiotic." 🔥

Coinbase and Robinhood represent a fascinating competitive pairing: one is Web3-native crossing into stock tokenization and institutional services; the other is new-gen Web2 fintech starting from stock brokerage and moving into crypto to capture young traders. ✅ Valuation Comparison: • Coinbase (COIN): ~$90B market cap, 65x forward P/E, analysts project 2027 EPS of $9.04. • Robinhood (HOOD): ~$80B market cap, 52x P/E, up 290% in one year. ✅ Coinbase Advantages: • Base L2 ecosystem: payment cost as low as $0.01 — the next dual-engine growth driver. • Stablecoin & RWA leadership: USDC ecosystem dominant, RWA tokenization grew 245x over 5 years to $21B. ✅ Robinhood Advantages: • Fast market deployment: First mover on stock tokenization, collaborating with Arbitrum for proprietary L2. • Comprehensive ecosystem: crypto/stablecoin/staking/perpetuals all-in-one, enhanced by Bitstamp acquisition. ✅ My View: I'm bullish on BOTH! They'll become $100B+ juggernauts threatening traditional finance kings — the "Heavenly Sword and Dragon Slaying Blade" of crypto finance. Challenge issued: I expect both to surpass Citibank ($150B) and Charles Schwab ($165B) in market cap.

I've been invited to present at many Taiwanese financial institutions recently. Everyone wants to know: what's the paradigm shift brought by stablecoins? Who will become the next $1 trillion stablecoin king? I've always believed true Web3 must be "AI + Stablecoins." After extensive analysis, everything points to one company: Stripe. ✅ Who is Stripe? • Founded in 2010 by brothers Patrick and John Collison, both Irish tech geniuses and YC alumni. • Started by solving their own payment problem — promoting a payment integration solution requiring just 7 lines of code, positioned as "the payment platform for developers." • Stripe supported Bitcoin payments from 2014 and co-built the Stellar Foundation with Jed McCaleb — their important crypto strategy early on. ✅ Key Strategies to $100B+ Valuation: • Customer-centric: Developer market focus, "platform of platforms" model with strong differentiation. • Product strategy: API-first culture, rapidly expanding diverse business models. • Acquisition roadmap: TaxJar, PayStack, Bridge, Privy and more — aggressively expanding product and market footprint. ✅ The Path to $1 Trillion Valuation: • Integrating stablecoins: Can grow clients 10x, reduce intermediary costs, build global payment infrastructure. • AI Agent financial infrastructure: 82% of top AI startups already use Stripe. The platform is rapidly becoming the billing and payment backbone for AI services. This is why I say: Stripe is this era's most important "Stablecoin × AI Payments" super-unicorn to watch.